1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene fluctuated and fell this week. It began to fall rapidly on Thursday. On November 5, the price was 6590.4 yuan / ton; On Friday (November 12), the price was 6500 yuan / ton, down 1.37% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 92.31%.

2、 Analysis and review

The trend of crude oil fluctuated this week, the market guidance for toluene was not strong, and the market focus returned to the demand side. Gasoline fell in shock; The downstream just needs to be the main, and the negotiation is light. Sinopec continuously lowered the price of toluene, the market mentality turned empty, and the price fell with it.

In the external market, toluene rose first and then fell this week. On Friday (November 12), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $862 / ton, up US $5 / ton, or 0.58% compared with November 5.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase, the U.S. dollar jumped, and OPEC + lowered its oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter, suppressing oil prices. However, the end of international travel restrictions in the United States and the adoption of the trillion dollar infrastructure bill gave a positive boost to the market. The demand for crude oil may grow, and the market is worried about supply or shortage. On November 5, Brent fell 0.57 USD / barrel, or 0.69%; WTI fell US $0.48/barrel, or 0.59%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell continuously this week. On November 12, domestic goods executed 14875 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from last week and up 2.59% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to stabilize this week, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 69.77% over the same period last year. As of November 12, the closing prices in Asia were US $905-907 / T FOB Korea and US $923-925 / T CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong fell this week. On November 12, the price was 7810.8 yuan / ton, down 0.96% from last week and up 48.81% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, tight crude oil supply still exists, short-term long short game, and the trend of crude oil fluctuates. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Although the supply of toluene is tight, the demand continues to be weak; The rising power of crude oil is weakened; Coupled with strong negative xylene, toluene may still fall. Pay attention to the dynamics of toluene plant, downstream plant dynamics and demand, as well as