Trend of metallic magnesium (11.1-11.30, the same below)

In November, the price of magnesium ingots “jumped up and down”, which was difficult to balance between supply and demand, resulting in repeated price fluctuations. According to the price data of business agency, as of November 26, the market tax included spot exchange was 36666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, an increase of 42.86%.

Market analysis in November

In the early stage, the demand for magnesium ingots continued to be weak due to the willingness of the purchaser next month. As the profit margin of magnesium plant has been significantly reduced and ferrosilicon continues to be weak and stable, the prices of blue carbon and thermal coal fell, and the magnesium price then hit the bottom and rebounded supported by costs. In the middle of the month, the overall market continued to rise after stability, and the overall shipment of the market was good. In addition, Yulin area was supported by local collection and storage policies, and there were few spot stocks in some factories. The market was willing to support the price, and the price rose rapidly, which directly led to the suspension of orders from some downstream customers and the decline of price. At the end of the month, the magnesium market suddenly became active again, and the price of magnesium ingots rebounded again.

From the perspective of supply-demand relationship

On the supply side, looking back on the sharp fluctuations in the magnesium market this month, the manufacturer’s inventory deserves attention. Most magnesium factories basically emptied their inventory at the beginning of the month. In addition, the collection and storage policy released the increasing power for the demand of the magnesium market. The overall inventory of the factory is small, and most factories need to arrange orders and make reservations. Moreover, after customers’ orders are replenished one after another, the factory futures scheduling cycle continues to extend.

On the demand side, the continuous follow-up performance of the downstream is not strong, mainly purchasing according to the price, the mentality of the downstream customers is still obvious, there are many replenishment operations on bargain hunting, and the high trading volume is small.

From the perspective of raw material relationship

Ferrosilicon fell 36.72% in November

In terms of ferrosilicon, the bidding price of ferrosilicon in November was basically between 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and some steel mills began to explore the price at the beginning of September. The steel bidding price fluctuated around 4500-6000 yuan / ton. In recent days, affected by the upward trend of futures, it has given great information to the market, and traders’ willingness to purchase has increased. However, most steel mills have not opened the bidding in December, and the mainstream steel mills have not entered the market yet, so the future market is mostly on the sidelines.

Thermal coal fell 16.05% in November

In terms of thermal coal, since the national development and Reform Commission launched a heavy attack on the coal market on October 18, the “three brothers” of coal have entered the downward channel. Although the intermediate futures market fluctuated, the overall trend continued to decline. The price of thermal coal fell 16.05% in November.

Future forecast

At present, the magnesium ingot market needs to find a new balance point. When there are few spot factories, the inventory situation of manufacturers is different, the quotation performance is different, the merchants are reluctant to sell and support the price, and it is not easy for the magnesium market to go down. Considering the continuous weak performance of downstream demand and the difficulty of price change acceptance, it is difficult for the magnesium market to continue to rise. Business analysts believe that for the short-term trend of magnesium market, we need to wait and see the demand side. According to the situation, when the transaction situation improves, the price will rise steadily.