441# silicon price trend

In November, the overall trend of metal silicon fell first and then stabilized. As of the 29th, the national price of metal silicon was 28130 yuan / ton, down about 1800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 29.60% month on month.

At the beginning of this month, the silicon price continued to fall in the market of last month. From November 1 to 10, the metal silicon fell by 32.85%. Affected by the weak demand performance, the market was in a depressed state, and the raw material cost support continued to weaken, resulting in serious price pressure on downstream customers. However, as the dry season approached, the anti falling sentiment of many silicon manufacturers increased, and the metal silicon increased by 5.84% in the third week. Some manufacturers stopped the furnace one after another, and the silicon price continued to approach the cost line, which enhanced the merchants’ mentality of reluctant to sell, the downstream procurement enthusiasm also increased significantly, and the metal silicon price was steadily promoted. At the end of the month, after the small outbreak of demand last week, the heat decreased again, the transaction slowed down slightly, and the price operated weakly and stably.

Import and export data of metallic silicon in October

In October, the sharp decline in domestic metal silicon led to a decline in export volume. According to customs data, China’s metal silicon export in October was 51000 tons, a significant decrease of 29% month on month and 12% year-on-year. From January to October, the total export of metallic silicon was 657000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34%. It fell sharply in October, and the atmosphere of silicon market is more pessimistic. Foreign customers mainly need to replenish inventory. At present, foreign inventory is relatively low. It is expected that the export volume will increase to a certain extent in November.

The cost of electricity price rises in dry season

At present, the electricity price in the dry season has been implemented in Western Sichuan, with an average increase of 2-3 gross / kWh. The power production cost of silicon plants will directly increase by more than yuan, and it is difficult to reduce the electricity price compared with the current situation. There is little room for further reduction of metal silicon. Considering the cost reasons, the merchants are not willing to make concessions. However, in the recent period, when the price of metal silicon is lowered, the market performance is still cold, and the inquiry and transaction show a downward trend.

Downstream aspect

Organosilicon: according to the monitoring data of the business society, as of November 29, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in the mainstream areas was 31480 yuan / ton. The downstream demand side was general, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the overall market was stable, the downstream digestion of raw materials was relatively slow, mainly just needed to buy, and the market was mainly consolidated and operated.

Polysilicon: at present, the price range of polysilicon material is 170000-210000 yuan / ton. Based on the tight market supply, the performance of the middle and lower reaches is mainly weak. It has been strong before, but the market has also shown signs of peaking, which does not rule out the possibility of falling from the high price in the later stage.

Aluminum alloy: the outbound volume of Wuxi Gongyi has increased significantly today, and the transaction of aluminum alloy ingots has warmed up. Today, ADC12 is quoted at 20000 yuan / ton in Wuxi, 20200 yuan / ton in Foshan and 20300 yuan / ton in Chongqing.

Future forecast

With the arrival of the dry season in December, silicone and polysilicon will be purchased stably, and the demand will continue to output, which will break the current upstream and downstream game state of the metal silicon industry chain. With the superposition of the current metal silicon production cost of about 20000 / T and the favorable support of the cost side, the silicon price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. In addition, near the end of the month, it is not ruled out that some silicon plants sell goods at low prices in order to recover funds, and the price is relatively lower. To sum up, the trend of metal silicon is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term.