According to the monitoring of business society, the price trend of ammonium nitrate rose sharply in 2021, with the price at the end of the year being 3960 yuan / ton, the price at the beginning of the year being 2840 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 39.44%. The highest price of ammonium nitrate in 2021 was 4700 yuan / ton, the lowest price in the year being 2840 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude in the year being 65.49%.

It can be seen from the trend that the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the whole year can be roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of April, and the market price of ammonium nitrate fluctuates and rises; The second stage is from the beginning of May to the end of October, when the market price of ammonium nitrate rises sharply. The third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of the year, when the market price of ammonium nitrate falls sharply. The specific market conditions are as follows:

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the end of April, the market price of ammonium nitrate fluctuated higher, and the domestic market price rose from 2840 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 2980 yuan / ton at the end of April, with an increase of 4.93%. At this stage, the market price of ammonium nitrate fluctuates and rises. Recently, the operation of ammonium nitrate manufacturers in the field is stable, and the spot supply in the field is normal. In addition, this stage is in the peak season of fertilizer preparation for the Spring Festival, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream increases. However, the civil explosion industry gradually enters the off-season of consumption, and the demand for ammonium nitrate is limited to a certain extent, However, at this stage, the market price of ammonium nitrate raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia rose sharply, the price trend of raw material market rose sharply, which was good for the domestic ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market rose.

The second stage is from early May to the end of October, when the market price of ammonium nitrate rises sharply. The domestic market price rises from 2980 yuan / ton at the beginning of May to 4700 yuan / ton at the end of October, with a stage increase of 57.72%. During this period, the market price of ammonium nitrate was the highest in history. Some ammonium nitrate manufacturers stopped for maintenance. The spot supply in the site was tight, and the decline in supply was a good support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. In addition, due to the sharp rise in the price of terminal coal, the market prices of nitric acid and liquid ammonia have increased significantly. The market price of liquid ammonia has exceeded 5000 yuan / ton, which is obviously supported by the cost of raw materials. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers have continuously raised the ex factory price, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly during this period, the downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer is relatively normal, and the civil explosive industry is in the off-season of consumption, The demand for ammonium nitrate was low, but the sharp rise in raw materials led to the sharp rise in the market price of ammonium nitrate at this stage, with the market price of ammonium nitrate rising sharply by 57.72%. By the end of October, the quotation of some domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was as high as 5500 yuan / ton. Due to different raw materials for ammonium nitrate production, the price gap between manufacturers is relatively large. The quotation of manufacturers using coal as raw material is relatively high, and the price of ammonium nitrate of natural gas manufacturers is relatively low.

The third stage is from early November to the end of the year, when the market price of ammonium nitrate fell sharply. The price of ammonium nitrate fell from 4700 yuan / ton to 3960 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with a decline of 15.74%. At this stage, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plant is relatively stable and the domestic supply is normal, but the coal price has fallen sharply. The price of raw coal has fallen sharply, resulting in the decline of the market price of nitric acid and liquid ammonia. The domestic market price of nitric acid has fallen to 2250 yuan / ton, and the market price of liquid ammonia has also fallen from the high level of 5000 yuan / ton to about 4000 yuan / ton. Affected by the sharp decline of raw material price, The market price of ammonium nitrate in China decreased accordingly. However, the downstream civil explosive industry gradually entered the peak sales season, and the demand for ammonium nitrate increased. The downstream actively prepared goods, which brought some positive support to ammonium nitrate. Affected by the positive demand, the decline in the domestic ammonium nitrate Market was alleviated to some extent, and the price fell by 15.74%.

According to the 8-year ammonium nitrate market price data monitored by the business society, the market price of ammonium nitrate in 2021 was at the highest level in the same period, and went out of a new historical high in 2021. However, the overcapacity of ammonium nitrate in China was relatively serious, most capacity units were shut down, and some manufacturers permanently withdrew from the market.

It can be seen from the above two figures that the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is greatly affected by nitric acid and liquid ammonia. The market prices of nitric acid and liquid ammonia rise in varying degrees in 2021. Raw materials are good for the domestic ammonium nitrate Market. The market price of ammonium nitrate rises sharply by 39.44% in 2021.

From the price trend data of ammonium nitrate over the years, it can be seen that the fourth quarter is the sales peak season of ammonium nitrate Market and the fourth quarter is the sales peak season of downstream civil explosive industry, which forms a strong positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The market prices of raw nitric acid and liquid ammonia are also important factors affecting the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market. Comprehensively, The market price of ammonium nitrate may get some support in 2022, but the maximum price will be lower than that in 2021. It is expected that the mainstream price of ammonium nitrate in 2022 will be 2600-3500 yuan / ton.