According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference of the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 9266 yuan / ton, and the reference of the average ex factory price at the end of the year was 8233 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 11.15% in the whole year.

In 2021, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fluctuated frequently. The n-butanol market rose sharply and fell sharply throughout the year, which is generally classified as a sharp rise in the first half of the year and a fall back in the second half of the year. The highest price of n-butanol in the whole year appeared in the first half of 2021. According to the monitoring data of the business society, on May 15, 2021, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 16166 yuan / ton, and the price exceeded 16000 yuan, which was the highest price of n-butanol in the whole year of 2021. It can be seen from the annual price comparison chart of the business society that the price also reached a new high of n-butanol in ten years. The lowest price of n-butanol in the whole year appeared in the second half of 2021. According to the monitoring data of business society, on December 13, 2021, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 7500 yuan / ton, which was the lowest price of n-butanol in the whole year in 2021, and the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 113.19%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of n-butanol in Shandong from January 2020 to November 2021, the price of n-butanol rose and fell each other in 2021. In the first quarter, the market of n-butanol in February created the largest increase month of the whole year, with a single month increase of 78.13%. In the second quarter, the market of n-butanol continued to rise. In the third quarter, the n-butanol market in September created the largest decline month in the whole year, with a monthly decline of 33.62%. In the fourth quarter, the n-butanol market continued to be weak and fell, and the price once fell to 7500 yuan / ton. At the end of the year, the n-butanol market returned to calm as a whole.

Review of domestic n-butanol market in 2021

In the first quarter, the price of n-butanol rose more or fell less. In January, the downstream goods preparation before the new year’s day has ended, the downstream demand has weakened, the Spring Festival holiday has not arrived, and a new round of goods preparation has not been started. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the venue, and the price of n-butanol has declined as a whole, with a decrease of 10% in January. In February, before the Spring Festival, the downstream butyl demand was good, the goods were actively prepared, the supply of n-butanol was tight, and the quotation was strong. After the festival, the n-butanol market rose sharply, and the upstream and downstream transmission was smooth. At the end of the month, the average ex factory price of n-butanol was 15200 yuan / ton, an increase of 78% in February. In March, the “high level is difficult to keep”, the downstream cost is under heavy pressure, the demand is cold, and the n-butanol market continues to decline, with a decline of 23.13% in March. The overall increase of n-butanol in the first quarter was 25.54%.

In the second quarter, n-butanol rose sharply, with an increase of 33% in the second quarter. In April, the n-butanol market stopped falling and rebounded, the low-end price transactions in the market improved, the small and medium-sized orders increased, the spot transactions of factories were smooth, and the center of gravity continued to move upward. In April, n-butanol increased by 18.18%. In May, after the labor day, the market of n-butanol continued to rise. On May 15, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 16166 yuan / ton, and the price in South China exceeded 16600 yuan / ton, setting a record high in ten years. Under the high price, the downstream pressure increased sharply, the wait-and-see was strong, and the demand weakened. After the sharp rise of n-butanol market, it fell sharply, with an overall increase of 8.21% in May. In June, the n-butanol market gradually warmed up, the inventory was low, the factory quotation continued to rise, the demand side performed well, and the on-site trading atmosphere returned to temperature. In June, n-butanol increased by 6.04%.

In the third quarter, in July and August, the n-butanol market fluctuated frequently, the market support was still good, and the price continued to run upward as a whole. Under the frequent fluctuation of n-butanol market price, the low-end price did not fall by 14500 yuan / ton. In July and August, the price of n-butanol remained 14600-15600 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.62% in July and August. In September, the policy of limiting production and power supply in all provinces was implemented. The downstream operation of n-butanol was insufficient, the demand was greatly reduced, and the market price of n-butanol fell sharply. At the end of September, the average ex factory price of n-butanol fell below 10000 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 33.19%.

In the fourth quarter, after the National Day in October, the n-butanol market recovered steadily, the downstream operating rate increased, the on-site trading atmosphere was active, and the factory quotation began to rise widely. In the middle of the year, the high price of n-butanol in Shandong exceeded 13000 yuan / ton. However, the downstream butyl users slowed down their procurement, the market wait-and-see atmosphere rose again, and the n-butanol market fell rapidly, In October, the n-butanol market experienced a sharp rise and fall, with an overall increase of 0.65%. In November, the downstream demand for n-butanol continued to be weak, and the factory offer price continued to adjust downward. In November, n-butanol decreased by 15.72%. In December, due to the lack of effective support, the decline of n-butanol intensified. On December 13, the price of n-butanol fell to the annual low, with an average price of 7500 yuan / ton as reference. Then, the downstream phased goods preparation increased, and the n-butanol market ushered in a small-scale recovery. As of December 31, the ex factory average price of n-butanol was 8233 yuan / ton as reference, with a decrease of 7.84% in December.

Summary and forecast

At the beginning of 2021, driven by the rise of chemical bulk products, the domestic n-butanol market rose sharply at the beginning of the year. Then, in the middle of the year, the market as a whole maintained a high level. In September and October of the second half of the year, the implementation of the Limited power production policy, the commencement of downstream plants of n-butanol decreased significantly, the demand for n-butanol was blocked, and the market price opened a downward channel. At the end of the year, Restrained by the cold demand, the market price of n-butanol fell to the freezing point of the whole year, and the lower and lower reaches of the low price have improved. At the end of December, the n-butanol market has slightly warmed up. It is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will continue to operate upward after the new year’s day in 2022, and maintain a bullish trend in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the market situation may be different from this year or show a downward trend, We still need to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand.