In 2021, the market trend of chloroform fluctuated and rose as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of bulk water in Shandong Province of chloroform was 3650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 4375 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 19.86% over the beginning of the year. The low point of the year was 2300 yuan / ton on February 2, and the high point of the year was 6200 yuan / ton on October 25, with an amplitude of 169.57%.
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The chloroform market was weak and fell in January. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream construction started lower, the demand was weak, and the enterprises had a strong willingness to go to the warehouse. Under the supply-demand game, the market price fell. The bulk water price of chloroform in Shandong fell from 3650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 2300 yuan / ton on February 2, down 36.99%.
After the Spring Festival from February to March, the start-up of downstream refrigerant gradually increased, and the demand was driven strongly; In addition, some enterprises stop and reduce the load before and after the Spring Festival, and the supply side is tight; The price of raw methanol rose and the cost side formed support. The price of chloroform rose from 2300 yuan / ton in early February to 4310 yuan / ton on March 17, an increase of 87.39%.
From the middle and late March to the middle and late July, chloroform basically showed a narrow fluctuation trend. On the one hand, since the middle and late March, the downstream refrigerant is in the peak production and marketing season, the operating load continues to rise, and the demand for chloroform is strong. In addition, the gradual rise of raw material prices has brought upward pressure to the chloroform market; On the other hand, methane chloride plants such as Guangxi Jinyi and Jiangsu Fuqiang have been put into operation successively, and the pressure on the supply side has increased, which has a negative impact on the trichloromethane market; The trichloromethane market was shaken and consolidated under comprehensive factors. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of chloroform was 4310 yuan / ton on March 17 and 4365 yuan / ton on July 18, an increase of 1.28%; During the period, the high point was 4462 yuan / ton on June 21 and the low point was 3700 yuan / ton on March 24, with an amplitude of 20.59%.
From mid July to early September, with the end of the peak refrigerant sales season, the demand for chloroform weakened and the price was under downward pressure; However, the price of raw methanol is basically stable, and the cost is still supported by trichloromethane. Under the comprehensive influence, trichloromethane runs stably after a slight decline from mid July to early August. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of chloroform was 4365 yuan / ton on July 18 and 3150 yuan / ton on September 10, a decrease of 27.84%; During this period, the high point was 4365 yuan / ton on July 18 and the low point was 2925 yuan / ton on August 10, with an amplitude of 49.23%.
The domestic policy of “dual control of energy consumption” was launched in September and the global energy crisis began in October. The price of raw methanol rose rapidly and sharply in September and October. However, the domestic methane chloride units concentrated on reducing the load in the early stage, the operating rate of the industry was as low as 4-50%, and the market supply was tight; Later, it encountered market speculation caused by the accidental parking of an enterprise. From September to October, the chloroform market came out of two “roller coasters”. After the beginning of November, with the increase of the start-up of domestic methane chloride units, the price of chloroform gradually fell. In December, the demand for trichloromethane in the winter storage and preparation of downstream refrigerants increased, which pushed the price of trichloromethane to rebound slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of chloroform was 3150 yuan / ton on September 10 and 4375 yuan / ton on December 31, an increase of 38.89%; During this period, the high point was 6200 yuan / ton on October 25 and the low point was 3100 yuan / ton on December 1, with an amplitude of 100%.
In 2021, the domestic methane chloride plant was started
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According to the business agency, the start-up of domestic methane chloride units in 2021 was slightly lower at the beginning of the year, higher in the middle of the year, reached the low point of the year in September and October, and rebounded at the end of the year. The side reflects that the supply side of chloroform is under great pressure from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. The supply is tight in September and October, and the cost side affects the pattern of chloroform market price from low to high.
In 2021, affected by the cost side, the price of methanol rose and fell back. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of methanol at the beginning of the year was 2310 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 2375 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.81% over the beginning of the year; During the year, the low point was 2240 yuan / ton and the high point was 4480 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 100%. The support for chloroform is strong in the cost front period, especially in September and October, and weak at the end of the year.
In the first half of 2021, the price of refrigerant showed a steady upward trend, while in the second half of 2021, under the influence of the dual control policy of raw materials and energy consumption, the price rose rapidly, R22 hit a new high in recent three years, and then the price fell sharply due to factors such as lack of cost support and weak demand, showing a roller coaster market, with sharp price fluctuations, which is quite the opposite of the plight of last year. According to the data monitored by the business society, the mainstream average price of R22 was 14333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 18333 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an overall increase of 27.91%. The lowest price in the whole year was 14000 yuan / ton in January and the highest price was 2666.67 yuan / ton in October.
Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that on the basis of the significant easing of the shortage of power coal, there is little probability that the raw material methanol will rise sharply again in 2022, and the driving force of cost side will become weaker; No new unit will be put into operation in 2022, and the supply side is stable as a whole, but it is still affected by periodic maintenance; Affected by the policy, the consumption of downstream R22 decreases year by year, the demand side decreases year by year, and the impact is empty. Overall, it is expected that the chloroform market will rise periodically in 2022 due to the impact of light and peak seasons and maintenance, but it is stable and weak compared with 2021.
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