Summary of spot price trend of precious metals
According to the data of business agency, on March 16, the average price of silver market in early trading was 5088 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 0.47%, which was 1.62% higher than the average price of 4928.33 yuan / kg in spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 4.99%.
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On March 16, the spot market price of gold was 391.20 yuan / g, a daily drop of 1.84%, up 1.01% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.06%.
Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, and the long-term trend is basically the same. Today, the price deviates.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
List of policies
On March 15, the people’s Bank of China launched a 200 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 10 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation. Among them, the bid winning interest rate of one-year MLF is 2.85%, and the bid winning interest rate of seven-day reverse repurchase is 2.10%, which are the same as before.
The central bank today launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repo operation. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, it realized zero delivery and zero return on the same day.
The bid winning interest rate of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance for one month treasury cash deposit is 3.41%.
Future forecast
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The risk aversion caused by geopolitical factors such as the situation in Ukraine began to subside. The Russian central bank said that from the 15th, it would suspend the purchase of gold from credit institutions; High inflation concerns in Europe and the United States began to rise. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates for the first time since December 2018, raising the federal funds rate from 0% since the pandemic to 0.25%. Interest rate hikes depress interest free hedging assets.
In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices.
Recent macro data of concern include:
Wednesday: API crude oil inventory in the week from 04:30 to March 11 in the United States; 20: 30. The monthly CPI rate of Canada in February, the monthly wholesale sales rate of Canada in January, the monthly retail sales rate of the United States in February, and the monthly import price index rate of the United States in February; 22:00 us march NAHB real estate market index and US January commercial inventory rate; 22:30 EIA crude oil inventory of the week from the United States to March 11 and EIA strategic oil reserve inventory of the week from the United States to March 11;
Thursday: from 02:00 to March 16, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision; 08:30 Australian February seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; 15: 00 Swiss February trade account; 18: 00 euro zone February CPI annual rate and euro zone February CPI monthly rate; 20: UK Central Bank’s interest rate decision from March 17; 20: 30. The number of initial jobless claims in the week from March 12, the annualized total number of new housing starts in February, the total number of construction permits in February, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index in March; 21:15 monthly industrial output rate of the United States in February; 22:30 EIA natural gas inventory of the week from the United States to March 11;
Friday: 07:30 Japan February core CPI annual rate; 11: The yield target of 10-year Treasury bonds from Japan to March 18 and the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Japan to March 18; 18: 00 euro zone quarter adjusted trade account in January; 18: 30. The interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Russia from March 18; 20: 30 Canadian retail sales rate in January; 22:00 annualisation of the total number of existing home sales in the United States in February, and the monthly rate of leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce in February; Saturday: the total number of oil wells drilled in the week from 01:00 to March 18 in the United States.
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