This week (4.6-8), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stabilized after the festival, with little rise or fall in the market. Prices in northern regions such as Shandong and Hebei increased slightly, which was mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the region and the failure of some devices. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 8, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.34%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4700-4900 yuan / ton.
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Supply side
On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places was mainly flat compared with the previous week, with a partial decline. In particular, there are too many unit maintenance in the south, and the reduction of supply leads to the price of liquid ammonia rising above the 5000 yuan mark. Affected by public health events in northern regions such as Shandong, the shipment is not smooth, but it is also accompanied by plant shutdown and maintenance. The temporary inspection of a set of Shuntian and Zhengyuan devices alleviates the supply pressure, and the ammonia price in the region is mainly supported and stabilized.
Cost side
The upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price maintains the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. With the fall of natural gas price, the cost pressure of gas head enterprises has been relieved. According to the monitoring of business society, LNG fell by 2.14% this week.
Demand side
From the terminal point of view, the downstream of liquid ammonia still maintained a moderate growth trend, the price of urea was slightly corrected, and ammonium chloride and other products rebounded. On the whole, the downstream agricultural demand is still strong, and the industrial demand is normal. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately.
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From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the curve crosses in April. It is mainly due to the impact of the high decline of urea price, and the strong price of liquid ammonia also brings some cost pressure to the downstream. However, at present, the price difference between the two has narrowed and maintained a reasonable level.
From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, at present, the profits of the liquid ammonia industry chain continue to improve, the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head falls, the coal price is affected by the policy, and the price remains weak, which is conducive to alleviating the downstream cost pressure. The middle and lower reaches recovered, the enterprise profit increased, and the profit of liquid ammonia increased significantly compared with the previous period. The downstream areas have also improved significantly, with formic acid, ammonium chloride and ammonium nitrate rising to varying degrees.
Future forecast
The business society believes that at present, the overall supply side remains stable, the differentiation trend in the region is obvious, the market shows a pattern of weak in the north and strong in the south, while the demand side remains dominated by rigid demand, and the possibility of demand amplification is unlikely. However, at the same time, many places have maintenance plans, the supply side also maintains a reasonable and tight level, and the future trend of supply and demand will continue to be balanced. In addition, public health events are still fermenting, which will still bring some pressure on transportation in the later stage. Overall, under the condition of small supply pressure, the ammonia market may still maintain a high consolidation pattern in the near future.
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