1、 Price data

As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8133.33 yuan / ton, down 2.01% from 8300.00 yuan / ton on April 25. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8100-8200 yuan / ton.

As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8020.00 yuan / ton, down 2.34% from 8212.50 yuan / ton on April 24. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8000-8100 yuan / ton.

On April 29, the naphtha commodity index was 100.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.48% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 137.64% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, the naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the terminal demand is not significantly good. At present, the logistics recovery is slow and the market transaction is general.

Upstream: under the background that international crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disturb the market, it will aggravate the expectation of tightening oil supply in the future. In addition, in terms of other supply factors, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has continued the gradual and small increase in production policy, which will stabilize the tightening of crude oil supply, with little effect. The OPEC monthly meeting may be held on May 5. Considering the binding interests of OPEC and its Russian allies, the possibility of policy change is small. The market generally expects that there is a high possibility of a small increase in production in June. On the whole, the trend of crude oil prices rose in April.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene fell this week. The price was 7400 yuan / ton on April 25 and 7320 yuan / ton on April 29, down 1.08% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On April 25, the price was 7450 yuan / ton, and on April 29, the price was 7330 yuan / ton, down 1.61%. In the PX market, the price trend of p-xylene market this week was downward. The price was 9300 yuan / ton on April 25 and 8900 yuan / ton on April 29, with the price falling by 4.30%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that this week’s naphtha market trading is general, and there is no obvious positive demand for terminal olefins and reorganization. Some enterprises prepare goods before the festival, but the overall demand is general, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.