1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the market price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 36500 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 39500 yuan / ton. The price increased within the month by 8.22%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus rose sharply this month, and the price of yellow phosphorus moved closer to the high end. The operating load of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan Guizhou region has declined, and the overall market supply has decreased to a certain extent. Near the wet season, there is still no significant improvement in on-site construction. At present, the spot is tight, and most manufacturers have no inventory. Near the end of the month, downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, mainly digesting the early inventory. The new yellow phosphorus orders were less traded, the manufacturers mainly supported the prices, and the prices of some enterprises were slightly corrected. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 39000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 39500 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market experienced several price adjustments in May, and the market focus continued to concentrate upward. The main reason to support the upward trend of phosphate ore market is that at present, the domestic phosphate ore supply continues to be tight. Many large factories mainly use medium and high-end phosphate ore for their own use. Some mining enterprises mainly send orders from core and old customers, and there is basically no surplus goods for export. Most enterprises have suspended their quotation. There are few goods circulating in the field, and the tight supply situation has not been eased. Therefore, the market price has repeatedly risen. As of May 24, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 880-930 yuan / ton, which needs to be discussed separately. At present, the average grade of domestic phosphate rock in China is relatively low. With years of mining, the average grade of domestic phosphate rock will decline in 2022, and mining is limited. In addition, the price difference between domestic and foreign phosphate rock is large, so some enterprises are reluctant to sell. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, as of March 2022, the domestic phosphate rock output has accumulated 2391.2 tons.

In terms of coke, the fourth round of raising and lowering of the coke market has been implemented. Up to now, it has been reduced by 800 yuan / ton. After the four rounds of lifting and lowering, the current profits of coking enterprises have been damaged, and some loss making enterprises have taken the initiative to reduce production. In the early stage, the sales situation of enterprises is generally good, and the coke inventory is low. In the downstream, the overall performance of the steel market is poor. Therefore, although there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, it is still based on demand. It is expected that the coke market will continue to operate weakly in the near future, and the follow-up will focus on the operating rate of the steel plant and the coke inventory in all links.

On the demand side, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market moved up in May, with strong cost support, and the increase of enterprise offers varied. The market price of thermal phosphoric acid is about 11000-12800 yuan / ton. The prices of other phosphate products are also gradually rising, and the acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus has been improved, forming a strong support for the yellow phosphorus market.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that the price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply this month. The upstream phosphate ore is in continuous tension, and the price rises. The downstream phosphoric acid market price is rising, and the prices of other phosphate products are also gradually rising, with strong upstream and downstream support. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be frozen in the short term.