According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on May 31 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in May was slightly increased from 15828.87 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 15900 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and remained stable until the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.45%. The production of the enterprise is normal this month, and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand continues to be average, and some parts are gradually weakened by the impact of transportation capacity and cost. The pressure on enterprises to ship goods is large, and the transaction is not easy.

Industry chain: according to the data of business agency, the mainstream quotation of upstream raw material acrylonitrile in the domestic market first rose slightly and then continued to decline in May. At the beginning of the month, it was reported as 11560 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was reported as 11460 yuan / ton, with a monthly decline of 0.87%. The highest price of this month was 11580 yuan / ton from July to October, and the lowest price was 11460 yuan / ton on May 31, with a maximum amplitude of 1.04%; In this month, the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry remained loose. On the one hand, there was still pressure on the supply side and the downstream demand was stable; On the other hand, the cost weakened slightly, and it is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will be weak and fluctuated in a narrow range in the later period.

Acrylic acid, the raw material, rose first and then fell in May. The average price in East China at the beginning of the month was 14433.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 14566.67 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 0.92%; Among them, the highest price point of this month was 14866.67 yuan / ton on the 16th in the middle of the month, and the lowest price point was 14566.67 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 2.02%. Propylene first rose and then fell in the first half of the month, with certain support from the cost side. Some units were shut down for maintenance, with low inventory, good export inquiries, gradual recovery of downstream demand, and moderate upward market negotiations. In the second half of the month, propylene fell, the cost side support weakened, the acrylic acid market operating rate increased, the supply side still had support, the downstream plants started in a depressed state, they were cautious about acrylic acid procurement, the demand side did not follow up, the market transaction atmosphere was light, the holders actively shipped, and the acrylic acid price fell. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stable in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 31 was 6614 yuan / ton, down 8.24% from the price of 7208 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 84.06% compared with the same period last year. After the May Day holiday, the logistics recovered, and there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. In addition, the good supply and demand of liquid plants in some regions promoted the slight increase of liquid prices in many places in China. However, since May 9, prices have stopped rising and turned down. At present, the demand in the off-season is weak, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, in addition, the inlet gas price is lowered, the feed gas price is lowered, and the negative factors are dominant. The domestic liquid price is falling frequently, and the market continues to be weak. In May, the off-season of the market affected the demand. In addition, the price of feed gas was lowered, and the cost support further declined. As the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, considering the poor logistics during the holiday and the reduction of prices by liquid plants, it is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to decline.

Future forecast: the raw material cost is weak, the fuel price is falling, the production is normal, but the downstream demand is general, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the transaction is not easy. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will remain stable in the future, supplemented by small adjustments.