1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply in June. On June 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 8471.25 yuan / ton, and on June 29, the average price was 7366.25 yuan / ton. The price fell by 18.24% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the market price of PVC carbide SG5 first rose slightly and then fell sharply. The overall price fell mainly. Futures prices fell for 13 consecutive working days this month. After rebounding yesterday, they fell slightly today. The futures price depresses the sentiment of the spot market. At present, the confidence of the PVC spot market is insufficient. The actual transaction is limited. The downstream enterprises and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in taking goods. They are mainly just in need. The goods in the PVC spot market are not good. As of the 28th, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 7050-7550 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on June 28, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $111.76/barrel, up US $2.19 or 2.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.80/barrel, up US $2.82 or 2.54%. Most of the oil producing countries of OPEC are close to the upper limit of production capacity, and it is increasingly difficult to increase production in the later stage. With the discussion of new sanctions against Russian oil by the group of seven western countries, supply expectations are tightened to boost oil prices.

In terms of ethylene, the external ethylene market fell in June. The market price of ethylene in Asia fell. As of the 28th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $976-986 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $1096-1106 / ton. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell sharply. As of the 28th, FD northwest Europe closed at $1538-1548 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at $1300-1308 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States rose violently. As of the 28th, the price was 552-570 yuan / ton. In June, the price of ethylene in the outer market basically fell. The market transaction was poor and the price continued to fall.

In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply this month. In this month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 4366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3833.33 yuan / ton on the 27th. The price in the month fell by 12.21%, 17.56% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell slightly this month, the upstream raw material prices rose first and then fell, and the cost support was general. The downstream is less enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early July, mainly for consolidation.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that June is the off-season for PVC, the market demand is weak, and the actual transaction is poor. Manufacturers and traders have accumulated a lot of money, lack of market confidence, light trading, and just need replenishment. The PVC market is expected to decline slightly in the short term.