According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market fell significantly this week (August 1-5). As of August 5, the average market price was 5825 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from the beginning of the week and up 10.86% year-on-year.

Statistics of recent domestic PTA plant changes

Production enterprise, unit capacity (10000 tons / year) unit change

Yisheng Ningbo, 200 shutdown, restart time to be determined

Jiaxing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., 150 shut down on August 2, restart time to be determined

Yadong petrochemical, 70 load reduced to 80%

Yisheng Dalian, 225 load reduced to 60%

Hengli Dalian. 220 was overhauled as planned on August 1

Baihong, 250 80% load

In August, PTA unit maintenance increased. During the parking of 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo, 1.5 million tons of Jiaxing petrochemical and 2.2 million tons of Hengli Dalian, the load of 700000 tons of Yadong petrochemical and 2.5 million tons of Baihong dropped to 80%, and the load of 2.25 million tons of Yisheng Dalian dropped to 60%. The load on the supply side decreased significantly, and the industrial operation dropped to around 66%.

However, the downside risk of international oil prices has increased, and the cost side has shifted downward. The Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 50 basis points to curb the economic recession that may be triggered by inflation, which continued to be negative for oil prices. This was compounded by the sharp increase in US commercial crude oil inventories last week and the increase in production targets of Oil Producing Countries OPEC. As of August 4, it fell to the lowest level since February. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel.

At the beginning of the month, the production and sales of downstream polyester plants were not prosperous, and the industrial operation was more than 77%. The increase of operation load was limited, and most of them mainly consumed PTA contract goods. At the same time, July August is the traditional off-season of the textile and clothing industry, and the downstream terminal orders are still weak. The market mentality is wait-and-see, and only a small amount of purchase is required. In the off-season of the industry, the start-up recovery of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving stopped around 50%. In terms of price, the polyester market fell by 0.65-1.17% this week.

Business analysts believe that there have been many maintenance of PTA devices in the near future, and some devices are expected to be negative and restarted. The supply in August and September is relatively sufficient. At the same time, the current crude oil fluctuates and falls, the support for PTA cost is weakened, and the terminal is weak in the off-season. There are still high-temperature disturbances in the south, and the recovery of demand is still blocked. Overall, PTA prices are expected to remain weak.