1、 Price data

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell slightly this week. On August 21, the average price of Shandong market was 4039.00 yuan / ton, down 1.52% from the price of 4062.50 yuan / ton on August 15.

On August 21, the petroleum coke commodity index was 314.15, which was the same as yesterday, down 23.13% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (May 11, 2022), and up 369.65% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery rose and fell. The shipment of the refinery slowed down, the transaction was general, and the downstream purchase was mainly based on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data are generally weak, which once again raises the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which makes the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.

Downstream: the calcined coke price remained stable as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon has risen sharply; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rose, and as of August 21, the price was 18433.33 yuan / ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude and mainly purchase on demand.

The petroleum coke analyst of Business Association believes that: the international crude oil fluctuated this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke is limited; Downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing on demand, and the shipment of petroleum coke from refineries slows down. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly adjusted in the near future.