1、 Price trend

 

PVA 2699

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the trend of decline of pure benzene in this month is fluctuating, and the decline in this month is obvious. On August 1, the price was 8650-8950 yuan / ton (the average price was 8784 yuan / ton); On August 29, the price was 7350-7750 yuan / ton (the average price was 7492 yuan / ton), down 14.7% this month and 0.9% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

This month, the pure benzene market was covered with bad news, and the price continued to fall. In terms of cost, crude oil fluctuated widely this month, and the trend of cost is unstable, which is difficult to support the price of pure benzene. In terms of supply, since the middle of this month, many pure benzene plants have been restarted one after another, and the domestic supply has increased significantly. After the superposition, it is expected that a large amount of pure benzene production capacity will be put into production, and the market mentality will be suppressed. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was low at the beginning of this month, and there was still speculation in the domestic market and the port inventory was tight. However, with the closing of the Asian American arbitrage window, the Asian pure benzene flows to China, the import cargo of pure benzene increases, the port inventory accumulates, and the mentality of supporting prices weakens. Demand side: due to the high price of pure benzene and the average profit level of the downstream, the production of most commodities in the downstream is at a loss, the economic shutdown and load reduction devices are increased, and the demand for pure benzene is weakened.

 

This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered six times, a total of 1350 yuan / ton to 7500 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of crude oil, the early crude oil market was very negative, the market was worried about the global economic recession, and the crude oil fell. In the later period, the market was more favorable, and the OPEC + production reduction was expected to increase, so the oil price recovered. During the month, crude oil played a long and short game, and the price fluctuated widely. As of August 29, Brent fell by 4.92 USD / barrel, or 4.47%; WTI fell by US $1.61/barrel, or 1.63%.

 

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene fell sharply in external trading this month. On August 29, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 898 US dollars / ton, down by 170 US dollars / ton, or 15.92%; East China imported pure benzene of 912 US dollars / ton, down 169 US dollars / ton, down 15.63%.

 

On the downstream side, styrene: this month, styrene fell. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 9621 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8775 yuan / ton, down 8.8% this month and up 2.33% over the same period last year.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

Aniline: aniline fell continuously this month and rebounded slightly near the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 11137.5 yuan / ton; At the end of the month, the price was 10050 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 9.76% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and 8.64% lower than that in the same period of last year.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

On the cost side (crude oil), first of all, the supply side is still tight, and OPEC + may face the bottleneck of increasing production in the later stage. However, the results of negotiations on resuming the Iran nuclear agreement will affect the market supply of crude oil. Second, there are still large risks on the demand side, and the market is still worried about economic recession. In the future, the crude oil market will continue to play a long and short game, and the economic recession risk and epidemic factors will still be the biggest constraints on oil prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC + production capacity policy, the US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, the global economic situation and other impacts on crude oil prices.

 

The influence of crude oil is weakened, and supply and demand are the main factors affecting the trend of short-term pure benzene. In the future, there will still be an increase in the import of pure benzene at the port, and new production capacity will be put into production in the domestic market. The pressure on the supply side will be prominent. However, the drop in the price of pure benzene will stimulate the recovery of downstream demand, and pure benzene may rebound at the bottom. In general, pure benzene may fall first and then rise in September. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream units, and the demand side changes on the price of pure benzene.

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