Last week (October 10-16), the cost drive was strong. The price of nylon filament rose with the cost, which to some extent drove downstream weaving users to replenish moderately. However, the quantity was small, and only just needed to replenish. The demand side is still weak as a whole, and most downstream users have poor enthusiasm for production. The weaving operation rate is only around 60%, so it is difficult to increase the load in the future. At present, the inventory of the downstream weaving grey fabric is high, and there is an expectation that it will rise again. The upstream and downstream of the nylon industry chain are playing games, and the silk market is under pressure.
| PVA 2088 (PVA BP20) |
Market price trend
Nylon price chart
Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)
According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of nylon filament rose slightly last week (October 10-16). As of October 16, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (Premium; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 18320 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than the price at the beginning of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.10%; Nylon POY (Premium; 86D/24F) quoted 16100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton compared with the price at the beginning of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.58%; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 18675 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than the price at the beginning of the week, with a weekly increase of 1.08%.
Upstream raw material market
Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain
During the National Day and early after the festival, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene continued to rise, and the cost side was boosted strongly. The market price of caprolactam, the raw material of nylon filament, also rose sharply, and downstream users did not have much stock before the festival. After the festival, centralized procurement followed up, driving the price of caprolactam market to rise. At the end of the week, the pure benzene and PA6 chip markets have weakened, and it is difficult for the cost and demand side to support caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be weakened in the short term.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Supply and demand
On the whole, the current commencement of nylon yarn is stable, 70% of the overall commencement is on the high side, the inventory level is high, the supply remains adequate, and the market is dominated by many main forces to digest the inventory. The demand side is still weak as a whole. After the festival, there is a small increase in the delivery of some winter velvet fabrics, but the overall number of orders is limited. Recently, the grey fabric inventory of the weaving factory has decreased slightly, but the decline is limited. There is still expectation of another rise in the future. Now it has entered the middle of October, and the early orders have been delivered in succession. The probability of the occurrence of new single faults in the future is high. In the short term, the market is still empty.
Future market forecast
The cost of the future market is likely to decline. Downstream procurement is cautious. In the short term, the willingness to inquire is not strong, and customers just need to buy at a lower price. At present, most varieties of nylon filament have lost cash flow, and the space for enterprises to continue to make profits is limited. Analysts from the business community predict that the nylon filament market will weaken in the later period, and the price may be slightly lowered.
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