1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose slightly this week. By the end of this week, spot copper had offered 68605 yuan/ton, up 3.27% from 66433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 3.03% year on year.

Copper weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past three months, the price of copper has risen by 6% and fallen by 5%, even by 1. Recently, the copper price has risen slightly.

Macro: the consumer price (cpi) of the United States rose less than expected last month. The official inflation rate fell to 7.7%, lower than 8.2% in August, and lower than 7.9% expected by economists. Senior officials of the Federal Reserve support slowing the pace of interest rate increase. A lower peak in US interest rates will help metals as higher interest rates restrain economic activity and boost the US dollar. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in October, the demand of some industries increased, and the national PPI rose slightly month on month. However, affected by the high comparison base in the same period last year, it turned from rising to falling year on year.

Supply side: supply, supply of copper concentrate is loose, and TC continues to rise. The new production capacity was put into operation, but the delivery rate of supply pressure was not as fast as expected due to disturbances such as maintenance and equipment transformation. The market inventory is still at a low level, which still supports the price.

Demand side: Affected by the soaring copper price, the downstream is afraid of high prices, and the terminal procurement is weak. In addition, it is expected that the import arrival will soon increase, leading to a weaker price comparison. The consumption of scrap copper rods is also weak, reflecting the continuous weakening of terminal demand. On the whole, North China and South China are affected by the epidemic situation and the commencement of construction is reduced. In addition, the winter in the north has increased the off-season factors. The consumer end is increasingly unable to support the price rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing.

Inventory: On November 10, copper in the previous period rose 5779 tons to 25006 tons from the beginning of the week. LME copper inventory fell 4525 tons to 80025 tons, down 5.1% from the beginning of the week.

To sum up, the current macro pressure is slowing down, with strong support from the supply and demand side. After breaking through the previous shock range, the copper price is likely to continue to rise in the short term, with the pressure at 70700 yuan/ton.