According to the monitoring of the business community, the ABS market in 2022 rebounded at the end of August after a high of 14850 yuan/ton fell at the beginning of the year. As of November 30, the ABS price was 11800 yuan/ton, down 20.54% for the whole year, and it was generally weak.
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The market trend of ABS in 2022 is mainly divided into four stages:
The first stage: shock operation stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of ABS1 was 14850 yuan/ton on April 1. As of April 6, it had reached an annual high of 15250 yuan/ton, with a range increase of 2.69% and an amplitude of 8.16%. During the period, the demand for goods preparation before the festival at the beginning of the year was low. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises returned to work slowly after the festival. Many factors changed rapidly, and the spot price fluctuated greatly. By the end of February, the demand of the main downstream household appliances industry had been delayed and the market ABS trading situation had improved. In addition, the crude oil price rose at a high level due to the influence of the European situation, and each raw material end gradually strengthened. The price of ABS rose in a volatile way due to various favorable conditions.
The second stage: sharp decline stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the ABS price fell from 15250 yuan/ton on April 6 to 11700 yuan/ton on August 30, a decline of 23.28%. At this stage, the 600000 t/a unit of Liaoning Bora was put into production, and the capacity of Lejin Huizhou increased to 450000 t/a. In addition, in August, the load of units such as Taiwan Chemical, Jilin Chemical, Jianghai, etc. increased, the domestic supply was abundant, and the supply side was under pressure. In addition, due to the influence of the off-season of the industry, demand support is insufficient. Since it is difficult to find good fundamentals, ABS prices have fallen for nearly half a year.
The third stage: peak season warming stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 10, the ABS price rose to a stage high of 13100 yuan/ton, up 11.97% from 11700 yuan/ton at the end of August. The traditional peak demand season of double section goods preparation in the interval, and the downstream demand is high. At the same time, the prices of upstream three raw materials strengthened, which jointly promoted the sharp rebound of ABS market.
The fourth stage: falling back. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the ABS price was 11800 yuan/ton, down 9.92% from 13100 yuan/ton on October 10. The range is mainly affected by the drop in demand at the end of the peak season, and the stock of downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, has declined. The supply pressure is difficult to solve due to the continuous high construction of ABS enterprises, and the increase in spot prices has been reversed.
Overall, the trend of ABS market in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:
Rapid expansion of the industry, concentrated release of new capacity
In recent years, China’s ABS industry has been in a long period of production expansion. With the increase of domestic total capacity, the supply side of ABS is under pressure and the price level is lower.
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According to the business community, the new capacity in 2022 will be concentrated in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, only the transformation of Lejin Huizhou production line increased 150000 tons/year to 450000 tons/year. In the second half of the year, the 600000 t/a production line of Liaoning Bora has been realized, the 400000 t/a unit of Shandong Lihuayi, the 400000 t/a unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the 250000 t/a unit of Ningbo Taihua will be put into production successively at the end of the year. It is estimated that the domestic ABS production capacity will increase by 3.5 million tons/year, and the supply side pressure will increase significantly.
Stable inventory digestion, strong demand and tenacity
Downstream of ABS, the main consumer industries are household appliances, automobiles, office equipment and other industries.
In 2022, except for the centralized maintenance in July, the unit load of domestic ABS enterprises will be more than 80% in the rest of the year, and more than 90% will be started in four months of the year. ABS production will be a great leap forward. After the Spring Festival, although the downstream construction was delayed, the demand continued to be restored around March, and the support from ABS was gradually obvious. However, in the late traditional peak season, ABS, a group of downstream suppliers, made great efforts to prepare goods, pushing spot prices to stop falling and rebound. Outside the two centralized volume ranges, domestic rigid demand also showed strong resilience, and relatively effectively digested such a high level of output. The annual total inventory remained at 172600 tons per month, and the inventory was further consumed in the second half of the year.
Long term weakening of raw material acrylonitrile ABS market dragged
According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average spot price of domestic acrylonitrile was 10500 yuan/ton, down 27.88% from 14560 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, with the decline concentrated at the beginning and middle of the year. Acrylonitrile was also affected by the expansion and high load of the industry this year. At the beginning of the year, the supply side was under pressure due to the high commencement of the plant and the commissioning of Lihuayi’s new plant, and the market fell rapidly. In the second half of the year, the supply of propylene as raw material increased, the market competition intensified, the crude oil was weak, the propylene price fell all the way, and the bad acrylonitrile market fell sharply in the middle of the year. The overall support for ABS is poor.
Future forecast: ABS analysts from the business community believe that the ABS capacity expansion in 2022 will be significant and concentrated at the end of the year. If the new ABS production lines are put into production on time in December, it will be difficult for the terminal enterprises to follow up the consumption rate for a while. By then, the state of phased overcapacity will be deepened, and the pressure on the supply side will inevitably have a peak. At present, the US dollar remains strong, international crude oil and upstream three are expected to continue to decline, and ABS cost support may continue to be weak. In addition, the commencement of terminal enterprises at the end of the year usually drops. In summary, it is difficult to find a good fundamental situation for ABS in the short term, and the market may fall in the near future. In the long run, the ABS price center may be adjusted to seek a new supply and demand balance point.
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