Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, and the urea price fell from 2793.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2788.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.18%, up 3.64% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on February 12 was 129.67, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 133.22% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support is weakened, downstream demand is general, and urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2900 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing Urea quoted 2780 yuan/ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2740 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 15 yuan/ton from the end of last week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 5926.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5724.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.41%, up 9.80% year on year; The price of anthracite decreased slightly, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium lump) was 1780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4140 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4206.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.61%, down 6.59% from the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the support for urea price was insufficient. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.40%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has gradually increased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has increased. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some gas-fired enterprises have begun to resume production, with a daily urea output of about 150000 to 160000 tons.

Mainly a small decline in the future

The domestic urea market may fall slightly in the middle and late February. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea fell slightly, and the cost of urea was not supported enough. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 to 160000 tons. In the future, urea may fall in a narrow range.