Recent price trends of urea

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2708.12 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2675.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.22%. Weekend prices have decreased by 9.66% compared to the same period last year. On April 23, the urea commodity index was 124.42, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.32% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 123.78% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Reduced cost support, average downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly increased, rising from 4206.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4524.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 7.56%. The weekend price has decreased by 35.19% compared to the same period last year; The price of anthracite was adjusted at a low level. This week, the price of anthracite in Yangquan (washing block) was 1260 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3316.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3050.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 8.04%. The weekend price has decreased by 38.84% compared to the same period last year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, with average support for urea prices. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly increased this week, from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7725.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.32%.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late April, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Urea analysts from Business Society believe that there are ups and downs in the upstream of urea, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.