The high price of aluminum has fallen back

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 25, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18843.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.37%, and an increase of 0.89% compared to the aluminum price of 18676.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

 

In the long run, after the current high price has fallen, it has been fluctuating sideways within the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton. In mid April, aluminum prices improved, breaking through 19000 yuan/ton within the month, and starting to decline this week.

 

Overview of recent market trends and motivations

 

The insufficient precipitation in the southwest and northwest has triggered a trend of reduced production of electrolytic aluminum, driving up the early aluminum price market. Recently, the hype has been released, and the high aluminum price has slightly declined.

 

Overview of basic data on supply and demand

 

Inventory data: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly in April. Inventory data shows that as of April 24th, the social inventory of mainstream regions in China was 838000 tons, a decrease of 132000 tons compared to the inventory of 220000 tons removed on March 30th and the historical inventory of the same period in April 2022.

 

Import and export data:

 

Raw material end:

 

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 20th, China’s import volume of alumina (excluding artificial corundum) in March was 70008.60 tons, a decrease of 61.78% month on month and 62.98% year-on-year. Among them, Indonesia is the largest supplier, importing 32041.97 tons of alumina from the country that month, a decrease of 60.96% month on month and a significant increase of 2076.72% year-on-year.

 

In March, China’s alumina exports reached 50000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 313.6%; From January to March, the cumulative export volume was 31 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1362.9%.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

In March, China imported 12.05 million tons of aluminum ore sand and concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; From January to March, the cumulative import of aluminum ore sand and concentrate reached 35.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%.

 

Raw aluminum:

 

According to customs data, the total import volume of domestic raw aluminum in March 2023 was 72100 tons, a decrease of 6.4% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 82.8%. The total export volume of raw aluminum in March was 5282 tons, a year-on-year increase of 149.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 87.5%. In March, the domestic raw aluminum trade showed a net import of 66800 tons, compared to a net export of 2826 tons in the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2023, the total net import of domestic raw aluminum reached 213000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 804%.

 

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in March 2023, China exported 497400 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; From January to March, the cumulative export volume was 1.3778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. In March, China imported 205500 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 574800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

 

In terms of downstream aluminum products: In the first quarter of 2023, the total export volume of aluminum products in China was approximately 1.312 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%; The year-on-year decline in aluminum exports in March was significant, mainly due to a 23.5% year-on-year decrease in plate and strip exports. Other sectors recorded an increase year-on-year, with aluminum profile exports significantly increasing both month on month and year on year.

 

Production data:

 

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s alumina production in March 2023 was 6.812 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; The cumulative production from January to March was 19.784 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.

 

The production of electrolytic aluminum in March was 3.367 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 10.102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.

 

The aluminum production in March was 5.789 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%; The cumulative production from January to March was 14.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.

 

The aluminum alloy production in March was 1.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%; The cumulative production from January to March was 3.129 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%.

 

Future market forecast

 

From the supply side perspective, production remained stable in April, and inventory data showed a clear trend of inventory depletion in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The main game point currently lies in the actual supply and demand changes in the later stage. It is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate around 18800 yuan/ton in the short term, and we will be watching downstream consumption intensity in the near future.

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