According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent price trend in the domestic rare earth market has been mainly volatile, with some prices in the domestic light rare earth market rising slightly. On August 13, the rare earth index was 471 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 53.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 73.80% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have slightly increased, while the prices of metal praseodymium and praseodymium oxide have temporarily stabilized. As of the 14th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 580000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.43% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 480000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.05% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 490000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increasing by 0.51%; The price of neodymium metal is 610000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.24% this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 627500 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 492500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.

In the early stage, the trend of the light rare earth market has risen. Due to the impact of high temperatures and rainfall, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a slowdown in the growth of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal factories in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of the light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. With the end of inquiry procurement, the activity of inquiries for praseodymium neodymium has significantly decreased in the past two days. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced their new orders. Affected by this news, the price increase in the domestic light rare earth market has slowed down.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.8% in production and a month on month decrease of 3.2% in sales, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 41.7%, respectively. The country is accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export volume in July was 5425.6 tons; From January to July, the cumulative total export volume of rare earths in China was 31661.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The export volume of rare earths in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earths market. The price trend of light rare earths market slightly increased.

Future Forecast: With the recovery of rare earth raw material supply in the later stage, the ordering and procurement of magnetic material enterprises will come to an end. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will continue to rise in the short term, and the pressure will increase. It is expected that the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.