1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium on September 1st was 3050 yuan/ton. On September 28th, the reference average price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3083 yuan/ton, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.09% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride on September 1st was 3828 yuan/ton. On September 28th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium chloride was 3875 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.31% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate increased first and then decreased this month. In early September, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased. The prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and sulfur have increased, resulting in increased cost-effectiveness. Under the support of pending orders in the monoammonium phosphate market, the market continues to be strong and upward. The spot price of diammonium phosphate in the market is tight, and as the autumn wheat fertilizer needs to follow up, the price of diammonium phosphate continues to strengthen. In mid to late September, the market for ammonium phosphate weakened. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, the price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the cost side is mixed. There are relatively few new orders in the monoammonium phosphate market, but there is still support from pending orders. The diammonium phosphate market is operating steadily, and enterprises are executing domestic and foreign pending orders. Downstream demand has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is not good. As of September 28th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050 yuan/ton, while the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The 64% market quotation for diammonium in Yunnan is around 3650-3750 yuan/ton, while the 64% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong is around 3850-4000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market rose and operated this month. Entering September, the trading atmosphere in domestic phosphate ore mines has improved, downstream demand and stock up have increased, and the supply of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore is constantly tightening. The on-site spot circulation is tight, and with the support of both supply and demand, the market price of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore is constantly approaching the high-end. As of September 28th, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 970 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 866 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.01%.

The market for raw material sulfur has seen domestic sulfur prices rise first and then fall this month, with an overall downward trend being the main trend. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the supply of goods is stable. The weakening of demand in the terminal phosphate fertilizer market has led to demand based purchasing, which has a negative impact on sulfur. The on-site trading was average, and the industry’s mentality was not good, leading to a reduction in the refinery’s quotation for inventory control. As of September 28th, the reference average price of sulfur in China is 1016.67 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium phosphate market has been steadily consolidating and operating in recent days. Cost support is still being added to the support of pending orders, resulting in a strong market for ammonium phosphate. At present, downstream demand is weak, waiting for the release of terminal demand in autumn. It is expected that the short-term consolidation of ammonium phosphate prices will be the main trend.