Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2551.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2630.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.13% over the weekend. On November 20th, the urea commodity index was 120.93, a decrease of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 20.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 117.50% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is good, downstream demand is average, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4840.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5040.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.13%, and the weekend price has increased by 13.87% year-on-year. The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) reaching 1110 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 4216.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.77%. The weekend price has decreased by 5.25% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly increased, providing good support for urea prices.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Agriculture has entered the off-season. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises generally start construction, and mainly purchase on demand. The price of melamine downstream of urea has temporarily stabilized this week, at 7325.00 yuan/ton. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have completed maintenance, and daily urea production has further increased, resulting in sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late November, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. Downstream industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is weakening. The daily production of urea is around 180000 tons, and the supply is good. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.