1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of December 8th, the spot nickel quotation was 135750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 39.55%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 8% and risen by 3% in the past 12 weeks, with the recent rebound being the main trend.

Nickel industry chain

On a macro level, the number of ADP jobs in the United States fell short of expectations, and signs of a weakening labor market reappeared. Nickel prices were supported by expectations of interest rate cuts.

In terms of supply: In October 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24000 tons, an increase of 8.9% month on month and 55.7% year-on-year. It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 24000 tons in November 2023, which is the same as the refined nickel production in October. The Philippines has entered the rainy season, and nickel ore imports and inventories are expected to continue to decline. Domestic refined nickel production is still at a high level, but due to the significant decline in nickel prices approaching the production cost of electrowinning nickel, refineries will focus on achieving their current production capacity targets.

In terms of demand: The stainless steel production in December is expected to continue to increase compared to the previous month, or slightly improve the demand for nickel iron. The bearish decline of nickel sulfate has not ended, and the sluggish quotation and production of ternary cathode materials are still dragging down.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of refined nickel in China in October 2023 was 6441.889 tons, an increase of 898.92 tons month on month or 16.22%; A year-on-year decrease of 5510.618 tons, a decrease of 46.1%. From January to October 2023, the total import volume of refined nickel in China was 76132.126 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51474.328 tons, a decrease of 40.34%.

In summary, the current pattern of strong nickel supply and weak demand has not changed, and nickel supply continues to grow. However, consumption has not shown signs of improvement, and the surplus pattern continues. Nickel supply and demand are empty, and domestic refined nickel inventory and LME inventory continue to accumulate. Recently, nickel iron and nickel wet process intermediate products have concentrated in Indonesia and returned to the domestic market. The nickel industry chain supply is abundant, and in addition, the prices of nickel iron and nickel sulfate have weakened recently, resulting in a significant decline in the cost of purchasing raw materials to produce electric nickel. However, due to the recent continuous decline in nickel prices, the profits of the nickel industry have shrunk significantly, and nickel prices have even been underestimated compared to other links in the industry chain. The downward momentum of nickel prices is insufficient. It is expected that nickel prices may still have some rebound demand in the short term, but the rebound height may be limited.