1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus has decreased. On December 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25729.33 yuan/ton, and on December 27th, it was 22962.67 yuan/ton. The monthly price has decreased by 10.75%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was light. In the first half of the year, the downstream market was relatively weak and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods was low. Downstream enterprises continued to be cautious in their procurement and made purchases at lower prices. As a result, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market gradually decreased. In the middle of the month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders and not quoting external prices for new orders. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. In the latter half of the year, the market operating rate has decreased, and some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. However, downstream demand is poor, prices are lowered for procurement, and traders and downstream buyers are less proactive in purchasing goods. The center of gravity of the on-site market continues to decline. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 27, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1034 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90%. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply on site is still tight. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. As the end of the year approaches, some mining companies are operating at a low level. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall domestic phosphate ore market situation will remain stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke increased in December 2023. The average price of coke on December 1st was 2328.33 yuan/ton, and on December 27th it was 2430 yuan/ton. The monthly price increased by 4.37%. In December, the atmosphere in the coke market was relatively strong, and the gaming mentality of coke steel remained strong. On the supply side, the price of coking coal has declined this week, leading to a decrease in the cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises. Some enterprises have increased production, and the comprehensive operating rate has slightly rebounded compared to last week. With the improvement of transportation conditions in various regions, the shipment of coke has improved, and the inventory in coking enterprises has significantly declined. The mentality of coking enterprises is still acceptable. In terms of demand, the enthusiasm for finished products is low during the off-season, and some steel mills have maintenance plans. The overall operating rate has declined, and coke needs to be replenished according to demand. Hard demand support still exists. Under the supply and demand game mentality in the future, it is expected that the coke market will maintain a relatively stable operation in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of phosphoric acid on December 1st was 7000 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 27th was 6600 yuan/ton. The price for the month decreased by 5.71%. Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, with insufficient cost support. The terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is essential. The market is mainly bearish. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December. At present, the market trading situation is light and the demand is not good. Downstream low-priced procurement, business owners are more cautious and cautious in purchasing. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.