1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market rose in January. On January 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 22962.67 yuan/ton, and on January 29th, it was 23929.33 yuan/ton. The monthly price has increased by 4.21%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus in the market rose in January, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is still acceptable. In the first ten days, the downstream market situation was average, and traders and downstream buyers had average enthusiasm for purchasing. Downstream procurement was more cautious and more wait-and-see. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market was on the rise, and the overall market trading situation was relatively active. Downstream stocking was active towards the end of the year. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market remained relatively stable, with manufacturers mainly placing early orders and completing the year-end stocking. The downstream market just needed a small amount of replenishment. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of January 29, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1056 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (reference price of 1034 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the price increased by 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.13%. The trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild, and the operators have a good mentality. Some downstream companies will stock up before the new year and purchase according to quantity. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market prices will mainly continue to maintain a stable trend, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke fell in January 2023. The average price of coke on January 1 was 2430 yuan/ton, and on January 29 it was 2226.67 yuan/ton. The price for the month decreased by 8.37%. In terms of demand, the finished product market has entered a seasonal off-season, and with the end of winter storage, the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory is low, maintaining a rigid demand for replenishing inventory. At present, the overall market atmosphere is weak, with loose supply of coke and weak downstream demand. It is expected that the overall market will operate weakly.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6580 yuan/ton, and the average price on January 29th was 6430 yuan/ton. The price for the month decreased by 2.28%. The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the market for raw material yellow phosphorus has been strong recently, and there is support for the cost of phosphoric acid. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream demand users are actively purchasing, but overall market demand remains weak.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of yellow phosphorus rose in January. At present, the market trading is average, and the year-end stocking is basically completed. The downstream market just needs a small amount of replenishment. Upstream phosphate ore prices have increased, coke prices have fallen, and downstream phosphate markets are weak. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.