According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 8th to 15th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6312 yuan/ton to 6275 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.59%, a month on month decrease of 2.33%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.33%. The domestic ethanol market is relatively weak, with production enterprises mainly focusing on regular orders. Enterprises have started to continuously reduce their prices to stimulate shipments.

On the cost side, the overall price of corn remains stable, with narrow fluctuations in some areas. The surplus grain at the grassroots level in the domestic main production areas is lower than expected, and the market’s bullish attitude has increased. The enthusiasm of traders to enter the market for purchases has also increased, and the grain rights have gradually shifted from grassroots to trade and downstream enterprises. The pressure on grain sales has gradually eased, and it is unlikely that corn prices will hit new lows. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; In the short term, the domestic ethanol supply is expected to be positive and the supply side continues to expand. It is expected that the Anhui COFCO plant will produce in mid March; Carbon Xin Technology plans to produce and ship; Short term shipments from Zhaodong COFCO; Incremental production of the Sunan plant. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream chemical industry just needs to purchase, methyl ethyl ester plant is about to recover, and sugar liquor will wait for orders for Baijiu. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, the favorable raw materials will drive the production of equipment to a high level, and downstream demand will be the main demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.