The price of ethylene glycol was relatively strong in the first half of July, and then began to decline slightly. Currently, the price is beginning to digest sideways. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4640 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.729% compared to the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on July 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4870 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4550 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4550-4700 yuan/ton.

On July 29, 2024, the spot basis of ethylene glycol at the port increased, while the contract basis was close to low and far from high. This week, the basis quotation slightly increased today, rising from+30 to+32 at the opening to+38 to+41; The base price for August is 42-46 yuan/ton, and for September it is 50-55 yuan/ton.

On July 29th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4150-4330 yuan/ton, including tax.

Low inventory supports firm operation of ethylene glycol prices

In the early stage, the explicit inventory data of the port significantly decreased, driving the price of ethylene glycol from 4400 yuan/ton to over 4700 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market was optimistic about imported cargo, and combined with the price hitting a new high for the year, the confidence of cargo holders loosened, and the price slightly fell back; According to recent port inventory data, the trend is still downward, and inventory is at a relatively low historical level. On July 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 566000 tons, a decrease of 136400 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 1, which was 702400 tons.

The price of ethylene glycol fluctuates excessively in the short term

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the driving effect of inventory factors on prices in the early stage is weakening under the expected increase in imports. Currently, inventory levels are relatively low, which provides some support for prices; In terms of demand, downstream polyester is reducing production to maintain prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is weak.

From the perspective of changes in supply and demand at the near end, the increase in maintenance of synthesis gas plants in August and September may lead to an improvement in domestic supply and demand, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate more in the short term.