According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 14th to 18th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5562 yuan/ton to 5525 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.67% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 20.50%. The price of raw corn continues to decline, and the cost support for fermented corn ethanol has loosened. Affected by poor downstream demand, the company’s shipments are slow, and the ethanol market quotation has declined.

On the cost side, corn prices remain volatile and weak, with an increase in new grain listings. Traders have not yet exhausted their supply of aged grains, and the overall market supply is loose. Some traders continue to slightly lower their prices for shipments, and the price of aged grains is gradually approaching that of new grains. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions of the market remains stable, with some factories experiencing short-term shutdowns and plans to restart. Coal quality factories are operating normally. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support slightly improved; The purchase quantity of anhydrous methyl ethyl ester is stable; It is reported that the load of the Hunan unit has recovered, while the load of the Jiangsu Sopu unit has temporarily decreased, and there may be a decrease in operation. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future, downstream demand is expected to be average, and factories have a low willingness to sell at low prices. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.