According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 2nd to 10th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2779 yuan/ton to 2695 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.00% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.75%. The domestic methanol market is declining. With the recovery of some domestic shutdown methanol plants and the increase in load of some plants due to the good profits of methanol production enterprises, the domestic methanol production supply is mainly running at a high level. Some production enterprises still have inventory demand before the Spring Festival, but the downstream replenishment sentiment is generally average, with a focus on observation. Enterprises are lowering prices and offering discounts for shipments.

As of the close on January 10th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2505, opened at 2590 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2607 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2578 yuan/ton. It closed at 2596 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.78%. The trading volume was 498791 lots, and the position was 784625 lots, with a daily increase of -493.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating steadily recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: The southwest unit has returned to normal, and if there is no equipment failure and shutdown, the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Storage and parking plans for facilities in Qingzhou Hengxing, Henan Xinxing, and Binzhou Hengyun have led to a continued decrease in formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin plant has started operation, while other plants have no plans to shut down, and the demand for dimethyl ether remains relatively stable; MTBE、 There is currently no new start stop device for chloride, and the demand for methanol is stable. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close on January 9th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $357.00- $358.00 per ton, up $5 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 122.00-123.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 437.50-438.50 euros/ton, down 3 euros/ton.

Future forecast shows relatively abundant supply of goods. The sustained weakness of traditional downstream demand has limited impact on the market. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience range fluctuations.