According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8400 yuan/ton to 8371 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.18%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.14%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing weak consolidation. The industry has a low capacity utilization rate and is experiencing long-term losses. The overall downstream load of the terminal has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. Both the supply and demand sides are supported, and the supply side maintains a stable market mentality.

On the supply side, new production capacity has not yet increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has declined again, with some support from the supply side. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The supply of calcium carbide remains high, and temporary power restrictions can alleviate inventory pressure in the short term, but it is difficult to change the current situation of oversupply. Raw material methanol: The growth rate of the domestic methanol market is limited. As of 10:00 am on February 14th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is weak, methanol prices are strong, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, TPU, and PU slurry have seen a significant increase in load, leading to an increase in raw material digestion. Most industries in the industrial chain are in a loss making state, with limited ability to accept high prices for raw materials. They hold multiple contract orders to follow up, and their intention to purchase spot goods is not strong. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Market forecast: Some equipment will soon be shut down, and supply side support will increase again; And the industry is in a loss making state, and the supplier’s price mentality continues. The downstream load of the terminal has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. However, under cost pressure, spot purchases are cautious. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.