According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market will rise in February 2025, with an average price of 16750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17005 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 1.52%.

On February 28th, the Business Society Lead Index was 103.49, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 22.77% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 38.67% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.

The lead market in February mainly showed a gradual recovery of supply and demand after the Spring Festival. In early February, both the supply and demand sides of the market showed a flat performance, and the lead price fluctuated mainly due to macroeconomic news and financial push. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market are gradually recovering. After a brief rise, lead prices rebounded in the middle of the month and stabilized slightly at the end of the month.

On the raw material side, the progress of overseas mines resuming production has been delayed, and it is expected that their output will not show significant growth in the short term. In China, although mines have reduced production due to seasonal factors.

On the supply and demand side, as the festive atmosphere gradually dissipates, lead-acid battery companies are gradually resuming production. Since these enterprises have relatively limited stock of raw materials before the festival, it is expected that they will face some demand for stock replenishment after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). This demand will help to digest the current backlog of primary lead inventory in the market, thereby providing some support for lead prices.

Although lead-acid battery companies are resuming work and production, the current terminal consumption performance in the lead-acid battery market is not strong. The order situation of production enterprises has not shown obvious signs of improvement, and the consumption of lead is still mainly based on essential needs. This means that although the demand for replenishment may have a positive impact on lead prices, the weakness of end consumption may still limit the upward space for lead prices.

In February, the demand for recycled waste batteries was relatively tight, and production resumed slowly. The expected increase was relatively small, with a slight increase compared to January. It is expected that the pace of supply recovery will increase in March.

Overall, market sentiment has improved at the macro level, with slow resumption of production of recycled lead and a rebound in downstream lead-acid battery companies’ production. There are expectations of material replenishment in the future, and it is expected that lead prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.