According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2656 yuan/ton to 2694 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.41% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.69%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.31%. The domestic methanol market has been fluctuating and consolidating. Macro sentiment has rebounded, coupled with low inventory and limited loading by some companies, planned maintenance of some facilities in China, and high enthusiasm for trade procurement, which has driven the strength of the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on March 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2560 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2574 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2548 yuan/ton. It closed at 2554 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 545484 lots, the position is 797999 lots, and the daily increase is -12739 lots.

On the cost side, the thermal coal market is operating weakly and oscillating. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: The load of some enterprises in Shandong has decreased, and the demand for methanol by chloride has decreased; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to stop driving formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant;. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 20th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 367.50-368.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 99.00-100.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 336.50-337.50 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.

The future forecast is that the supply will remain abundant, and inventory will continue to be widely depleted. Downstream traditional demand maintains essential consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.